Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The situation around Iran

With the adoption of oil embargo against Iran the EU has raised the stakes even further in the Western standoff with Iran. This action, which probably is bound to have more negative effect on ailing European economy than  Iran, is hardly a sensible step if one is after coercing Iran into stopping its nuclear development. To begin with these sanction failed measurably in the past,  especially in Iraq, where the brunt of these sanctions fell on the civilian population. Secondly, in recent years Iran has acquired vast currency reserves due to the high prices on oil and gas. It will take many years before these sanction will have biting effect, especially given the reluctance of Iran's main partners China, India, South Africa and Turkey, to take part in the embargo. So why then has the EU undertaken this apparently self-defeating decision? I think the EU knows that the effect of the embargo is going to be short-term anyway, since the main Western antagonists of this drama have already chosen the path of war.

Israel is undoubtedly interested in thoroughly defeating Iran. Indeed, if Iran decided to stop its nuclear work Israel would have been the loser, because the  Iran's role in the region, although enhanced by its nuclear advances, relies primarily on the influence it wields among the resistance groups in Palestine, Lebanon, Shia groups in the Arab countries and Syria. From the Israeli perspective, the most desired outcome would be a complete drying up of the financial and military assistance provided by Iran to its allies. This would be feasible only as the result of a serious military defeat suffered by Iran. Hence Israel is interested in waging a war against Iran even more than it is interested in cessation of its nuclear program and it is prepared to pay for that a substantial price in terms of military and civilian losses.

As much as Israel wants to fight Iran it cannot currently start the war. The first reason is that such a thorough defeat of Iran is hardly possible through the use of air force alone. The deficiency of over-relying on  air superiority has been demonstrated in the last Lebanon war of 2006, when Hezbollah guerilla group could frustrate Israel just by staying put. Although it is probable that Israeli air force is capable of overcoming the Iranian air force and anti-air defenses, it still would have pay a very hard price for a very humble achievement. Besides Israel acting alone would have to overcome serious logistic problem of fighting a war with a country separated by at least two sovereign states. In short, Israel would need the support of its NATO allies, primarily the US.

Such support, either military or otherwise, would have been gravely endangered should Israel be the first to attack. In addition, this action would be censured or even actively opposed by the neutral, but Iran-leaning countries like Russia, China and possibly India. Finally it would also exacerbate the anti-Israeli sentiment among the people of Muslim countries, which may have farther negative outcome on the stability of the region. All this reasons will prevent Israel from initiating the attack.

The US itself seems to be eager to flex its muscles once more. It conveniently evacuated its military, but not para-military forces from Iraq and amassed very impressive naval forces in the Gulf. It has a lot at stake at this conflict. Firstly, it needs to prop up the failing fortunes of its allies in the area, including Israel and the Gulf states; secondly, in periods of financial insecurity the power of manipulating oil reach countries become almost a necessity. There is also a personal revenge matter: though there are countries that have bloodied American nose more than Iran, there is no country that has done it with such a gratuitousness and in-your-face manner. Finally, without dealing with Iran, the war in Iraq will go down in history as the horrendous miscalculation, something that the US can ill afford. Yet as well as Israel, the US finds it difficult both for the internal and the external reasons to initiate this conflict.

On the other side there is Iran, which definitely does not want to go to war. It has most to lose in the event of war and least to gain. Supported by its oil revenues and emboldened by its success in crushing the decent it has acquired a status of regional super-power and if left to its own devices it will most assuredly gain more clout in the coming years with its enemies crumbling from inside in the waves of Arab revolutions. It gambled in its opposition to the Western demands and took a position which leaves it with little place for maneuver. The Iranian bet is that no matter what the West will not dare to attack.

This Iranian self-assurance seems to be a miscalculation. It's true that the West is reluctant to initiate the conflict, but it's also true that the Iranian uncompromising stance represents the tool for the West to manipulate Iran into initiating the conflict by some ill-advised action or suffer a series of humiliating and potentially debilitating measures.  The recent decision by the EU is designed either provoke Iran into some kind of retaliatory response, e.g. closing the strait of Hormuz, which would certainly invite a crushing response or appear weak and incapable of following through its earlier belligerent language.

All in all, the unfortunate conflict seems to be almost unavoidable, since it's hard to assume that the stronger side (the West) will give up and that the weaker side (Iran) will come to its senses.