Friday, April 18, 2014

A lesson on Russian folklore

A famous Russian proverb says that it is better to have 100 friends than 100 rubles. Ukraine has learnt the hard way the value of the Russian folklore. Really, it's much better to have 100 rubles. If you don't, at least stay away from friends especially if they are fools.

Let’s start with Russia. Its bulging member, the president, becomes harder to conceal. Russia has been going through the fortunate phase of doing relatively well. But of course, it is not enough to win, the others must lose (Gore Vidal). Mr. Putin has apparently decided that it’s about time for Russia to push the West into the same warm and badly smelling spot the West has become accustomed to, gaining some literal ground in process. All in all, neither the land, nor humiliating the West will do Russia any good. It will do wonders to Putin’s rating though. And that is one hell of an achievement for the current Russian president (other than stealing a wallet from his neighbor when he was busy putting a fire out in his house).

He has also achieved a rare for a non Western head of state status of an unassailable figure. The West has no choice but to tolerate him. The reason is that there is no acceptable alternative to Putin in Russia. If sanctions work and people in Russian become desperate, a cleverly crafted blend of nationalism, conservatism and ostensible religiosity would burst into real fascism or communism or, rather more likely, a mixture of the two. Going down, Putin would inevitably take with him his Jewish oligarch friends with their less fortunate coreligionists, the last vestiges of free press and liberal economic practices. Other minorities and Russia’s neighbors would be advised to fasten their belts too. That is something nobody wants. It’s cheaper to feed the beast Ukraine, in a piecemeal manner.

Europe as always was amazing… especially en face. They probably said to themselves: “Sure, why not create another Latvia and help 20% of Ukrainians become redundant in their own country. After all there are only 40 or so millions of these Ukrainians. Really, who would refuse to ruin the economy of their own country just for the honour of being associated with EU?”. Putin probably has very warm feelings towards the guys in Brussels, doing all they can to make Eastern Europe forget what it had been learning the hard way for 40 post-war years.

It’s only the people of Crimea who I feel the real empathy with. Under the circumstances they have made the most human choice of all - they chose bread over cheap talks. Russia is doing well now, Ukraine is a rack - it’s about time to switch. I just wonder why they did not ask to join Qatar or Kuwait. I guess the pensions could have been even higher.